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Breakout After Hours, week of October 27, 2026: Bitcoin’s $80K floor, the Fed’s October 28 decision, the November 3 midterms and Anthropic’s IPO filing.
Bitcoin’s October has been more disappointing than disastrous. As of October 27, it was down roughly 4% on the month. That is not the end of the world, but October is historically one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, so “Uptober” is basically a fraud at this point.
The interesting part is the floor. Bitcoin dipped under $80K again early on Monday, October 26, and got bought straight back up. That area has caught every push lower since the September breakout, including a Sunday, October 18 low near $80,800 that the October 20 edition covered. The range has held between roughly $80K and $87K for over a month now, and the crypto Fear & Greed Index read exactly 50 on October 26. The most perfectly undecided market of the year.
It won’t stay undecided for long. The eight days from October 27 to November 3 are stacked.
Wednesday, October 28: the Fed
The Fed, which hiked rates in September for the first time since 2023, announces its decision on Wednesday, October 28. A hold is all but locked, priced at roughly 90% or better as of October 27. In late September, the odds of a hike at this meeting were about 64%. Now they are under 10%. The real question is December, where Polymarket still prices roughly a 78% chance of another hike, so ignore the decision and watch Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The September PCE inflation data and the first estimate of third-quarter GDP both land on Thursday, October 29.
Tuesday, November 3: the midterms
Every strategist dusts off the same stat this time of year. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after all 19 midterm elections, with an average gain of 15.5%. In Barchart’s analysis of data going back to 1937, the fourth quarter of a midterm year has averaged 6.6%, more than double the 2.9% average for the fourth quarter across all years. The worst result after a midterm? Up 1.3% after 1986, and that year included the October 1987 crash.
Two caveats before anyone goes all in leveraged long, though. 2026 already broke the script. Midterm years are usually flat by October, and the S&P 500 is up about 12% this year as of October 26. Valuations are also stretched. History is a tailwind, not a promise.
November: Anthropic’s IPO
Anthropic, the company behind Claude, filed its S-1 with the SEC on Monday, October 26, for a planned Nasdaq listing under the ticker ANT. Coverage of the filing shows $16.3 billion in revenue for the first half of 2026, against $4.6 billion for all of 2025, alongside an $80.7 billion net loss. The filing sets no share count or price range yet. Reports put the raise at up to $100 billion at a valuation somewhere between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion, with a debut expected in November. That would rank among the largest IPOs ever.
Election night does not wait for the open
Election night is where volatility lives. Results land state by state, hours after the cash market closes, and the New York cash session does not reopen until the 9:30 a.m. ET bell on Wednesday, November 4. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 (XYZ100) trade 24/7 on Breakout, with no news restrictions, so you can trade the map as it moves while the cash market waits for the open. Outside cash-market hours, spreads run wider and prices can differ from the index you see on other platforms, so read the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 guides first. Classic, Pro and Turbo accounts run on two loss limits, the same on evaluation and funded accounts, with up to $200K in funded capital.
