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Breakout After Hours, week of October 13, 2026: the 10-year Treasury yield touched its highest level in 24 years on October 7, Bitcoin traded near $83,000 on October 13, and September CPI is due on Wednesday, October 14.
The bond market is having a moment, and not the fun kind.
On Wednesday, October 7, the 10-year Treasury yield touched about 5.36%, its highest level in 24 years. The 30-year finished that week at 5.60%, and the average 30-year mortgage rate was 7.40% as of October 8, according to Freddie Mac. If you locked a mortgage in 2021, you are currently the smartest person at every dinner party.
The Fed’s September rate hike, oil riding the conflict with Iran, Treasury issuance outrunning demand, and the AI build-out are all pushing in the same direction. In mid-September, BMO clocked a one-month correlation of 0.96 between oil and the 10-year yield, which means the two were moving almost in lockstep.
Then there is Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s buyback program, the one we called a tourniquet on an arterial bleed in the September 15 edition. That same month, speaking at Southern Methodist University on September 8, he said “I am the house now” and told the room they could bet against him if they wanted. The bond market took the bet. The 30-year yield climbed from 5.25% on September 8 to 5.67% on October 7, and the Fed’s own minutes, released October 7, note that market commentary pointed to uncertainty around the buyback itself as one factor behind higher Treasury yields between its July and September meetings. Safe to say that quote aged like milk.
Bitcoin is holding up better than it has any right to
Bitcoin traded near $83,000 on October 13, which is not bad for an asset competing with a government that will pay you over 5% to sit on your hands. Strategy, Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin treasury company, added 250 coins for $21.5 million in the week of October 5, its smallest buy of 2026, at an average of $86,194. That landed close to the week’s high, which has happened before, so what else is new.
Elsewhere, Jeonbuk Bank reportedly became South Korea’s first commercial bank to accept Bitcoin as collateral for won-denominated loans, offering them to corporate customers as of October 12.
Wednesday, October 14 is the event that really matters
September CPI is due Wednesday morning, October 14. A soft September jobs report on October 2 pushed markets to largely price out another Fed hike at the October 27 to 28 meeting, so a hot print reopens that debate fast. A cool one buys risk assets some breathing room.
A Wall Street market maker walks into a prop firm
Eric spent more than a decade as an interbank market maker on Wall Street, trading hundreds of millions at a time for clients like pension funds and sovereign funds. Now semi-retired, he scalps crypto a couple of hours a day around a day job, and he has taken more than 60 payouts on Breakout in six weeks. That is an exceptional individual result and not a typical one.
TraderMayne sat down with him for nearly 90 minutes to talk through what bank trading actually looks like: why banks aren’t hunting your stop, why pros think about the loss before the win, and how to think like the casino, a chapter we’d recommend to the Treasury Secretary. It works as a mini-masterclass, and there is something in it for everyone.
