Breakout After Hours, week of August 3, 2026: Strategy sells below its own cost basis while Bitcoin barely blinks, a levered AI fund gets liquidated at the exact low, and the S&P 500 goes live on Breakout at 5x from day one.
Saylor sold again. Strategy told the SEC on Monday, August 3 that it moved another 1,638 BTC between July 27 and August 2, about $105 million worth at an average price of $63,957. Third sale of the year, and roughly 15% under the company’s own average cost of $75,419 a coin.
And Bitcoin’s reaction? It slipped to around $62,250 on Monday, then went straight back to $64,160 by Tuesday, the highest it had traded since July 31. Just as everyone expected.
The market now treats the largest holder on earth selling as good news. Honestly? Fair. Strategy still sits on 842,138 BTC, roughly 4% of the 21 million coins that will ever exist. Everybody already knows the overhang is there, and every coin sold near the lows is one less coin hanging over the market later. The best thing Saylor can do for Bitcoin at this point might genuinely be selling it slowly, and price seems to agree.
Try explaining that one to your friends outside crypto, though.
The margin call that called the bottom
If you missed this one: Leopold Aschenbrenner is 24 years old, left OpenAI, and started an AI fund called Situational Awareness in 2024. By the end of June it was up 439% for the year, levered to the absolute gills on AI infrastructure and semiconductors.
Then AI stocks wobbled in July, the margin calls started, and six trading days later it was over. On July 30 the fund sold its entire public book, longs and shorts together, in a single block trade to Ken Griffin’s Citadel before the market even opened. Down about 67% for the month. Roughly $20 billion under management going in, about $10 billion coming out, with a stake in Anthropic as the main thing left standing.
And here’s the kicker: that forced sale was the bottom. Almost to the hour. The semiconductor index put up its biggest one-day gain since April 2025 in the same session, the names he had just been carried out of bounced about 20%, and the Nasdaq has done nothing but go up since Kenny G took the other side. The Composite sits about 5.8% above its July 30 close, and the S&P 500 and the Dow both printed record closes on August 4.
Oldest rule in the book. Markets don’t bottom on good news, they bottom on forced liquidation. A massively overlevered player got carried out, and that was that. Dog eat dog world. Thanks for playing.
(See you next time?)
Two different markets, same autopsy. Saylor rode Bitcoin from nothing to a $126K top and never rang the register. Aschenbrenner compounded a few hundred million into tens of billions and never rang it either. Now one of them is selling below cost to cover dividend payments and the other got carried out entirely. Greed is one hell of a drug, and unrealized gains are just a number on a screen. Lesson in there.
Player two has entered
Two weeks earlier, on July 20, the Nasdaq 100 landed on Breakout. As of Monday, August 3, the S&P 500 is live too, and no training wheels this time.
The Nasdaq 100 eased in at 2x leverage and a $100,000 max position before scaling up a week later. The S&P 500 skipped the line entirely: 5x and a $1,000,000 max position from day one, the same tier as BTC and ETH. The ticker is S&P500. Long or short, priced around the clock, out of the same account you already trade crypto from.
Two of the most traded indexes on earth, added in two weeks. The roadmap is still basically whatever you keep asking for, and there is more coming hot on the heels of this one. Stay tuned.
