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4 YEARS OF DATA

Bitcoin SFP Backtest

Watch the full video alongside our detailed notes and extra learning resources in this full cheat sheet companion guide.

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01
Section 1 0:16

Identifying Swings

What you'll learn: The three-candle swing system, why these turning points are where stops cluster, and how to mark them objectively.

Key Moments
Critical Takeaways
  • Three candles make a swing. The middle is the high or low.
  • Swing points are stop-loss magnets. That's why they get hunted.
  • Mark them objectively. The pattern doesn't work if you're squinting.
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02
Section 2 0:45

What Is an SFP?

What you'll learn: The anatomy of a swing failure: price runs the swing, fails to close, and reverses. Plus the trapped-trader logic that makes it work.

Key Moments
Core Concepts
Critical Takeaways
  • The wick is the sweep. The close is the trigger.
  • A bullish SFP wicks a low, closes above. A bearish SFP wicks a high, closes below.
  • Both sides of the level lose - long stops trigger AND breakout shorts trap. The reversal has fuel.
03
Section 3 2:51

The 91% Backtest

What you'll learn: The four-year data: 22 weekly SFPs on Bitcoin, 20 with 10%+ moves, 16 marking major swing tops or bottoms.

Key Moments
Critical Takeaways
  • Over four years, 22 weekly SFPs on Bitcoin. 20 produced 10%+ moves. 16 marked major swing points.
  • Two failed. That's 91% with meaningful follow-through.
  • High time frame SFPs work because the level is significant. The weekly is where the real liquidity sits.
04
Section 4 3:39

How to Trade It

What you'll learn: Where to enter, where to stop, what to target - and why the weekly close is the trigger, not the wick.

Key Moments
Critical Takeaways
  • Enter on the weekly close, not the wick. The wick is the bait.
  • Stop above the SFP high (or below the SFP low). If price closes back through, the pattern has failed.
  • Target the next major swing point on the opposite side.
  • Patience matters. A weekly SFP takes time to set up. Don't force daily ones that don't have the same data.
Practical Tip

Set a weekly alert at every major BTC swing high and low. When price approaches, watch the weekly close. The SFP is a once-or-twice-per-quarter setup - it deserves a calendar reminder.

Putting It All Together

Your SFP Workflow

The weekly SFP is a low-frequency, high-conviction trade. Treat it that way.

1

Mark BTC weekly swings

The major three-candle highs and lows. The ones that look obvious.

2

Set alerts

At each major swing high and low. Let price come to you.

3

Wait for the wick

Price has to trade through the level intra-week.

4

Wait for the close

Weekly close back inside = SFP confirmed.

5

Enter, stop, target

Enter on the close. Stop above the SFP wick. Target the next major swing on the opposite side.

6

Size for 1-2%

High conviction doesn't mean oversize. Same risk percentage as every other setup.

7

Practice on Breakout

Start a trading test at breakoutprop.com. Real markets, structured risk - the best way to learn.

Put it to work
Take what you learned here into a real evaluation. Pass, get funded, keep 80-90% of profits.
Purchase an Evaluation